Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia

Kasye Shitu; Shimelis Berhanu

doi:doi:10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11

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Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia

Kasye Shitu, Shimelis Berhanu

Published in Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science (Volume 9, Issue 5)

Received: 18 February 2020 Accepted: 3 March 2020 Published: 24 September 2020

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Abstract

Statistical downscaling models for temperature and precipitation in Borkena River Catchment, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in historic, current and future climate changes. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the outputs from GCMs and stations data (1976-2005) which were collected from 4 observed meteorological stations (predictand) and downscaling using SDSM version 4.2.9a. The study investigated how these changes in temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in livelihoods of people and other biophysical components using impact assessments. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the statistical downscaling methods in estimating monthly average rainfall and temperature, in line with this it was also conducted to project the future climate situation of Borkena River catchment (Ethiopia). Accordingly, the results revealed that both temperatures (maximum and minimum) showed an increasing trend. The result of future temperature from SDSM for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show increased rate on annual basis except 202s for RCP4.5. The maximum increasing value will occur for RCP8.5 in the 2020s and 2080s with a value of 1.85°C and 2.82°C for minimum and maximum temperature respectively. Downscaled precipitation results of future time interval of this study indicated decreased precipitation value for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on annual basis. This, may increase water availability stresses in the study area. Therefore, this facilitate the decision makers to incorporate climate change scenarios for devising sustainable strategies, including: water harvesting technologies, supplementary irrigation, using improved seeds, which can tolerate moisture stresses, afforestation and reforestation programs, and soil and water conservation techniques. Moreover, crop diversifications, agricultural extension services access, related strategies, and measures are highly recommended for climate change resiliencies.

Published in	Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science (Volume 9, Issue 5)
DOI	10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11
Page(s)	87-97
Creative Commons	This is an Open Access article, distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/), which permits unrestricted use, distribution and reproduction in any medium or format, provided the original work is properly cited.
Copyright	Copyright © The Author(s), 2020. Published by Science Publishing Group

Keywords

Borkena, River Catchment, Statistical Downscaling, GCM and CanESM2

References

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[2]	No, R. S., Scandinavian, S., Network, N. E., & Bases, T. F. (2003). Climate Change Scenarios for the SCANNET Region. (4663).
[3]	Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC).2012. Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters to Advance Climate Change Adaptation: Special Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change; Cambridge University Press: New York, NY, USA.
[4]	Wilby, R. L.; Wigley, T. 1997. Downscaling general circulation model output: A review of methods and limitations. Prog. Phys. Geogr. 21, 530–548. [CrossRef].
[5]	Legesse, S. A., Rao, P. V. V. P., & Rao, M. M. N. 2013. Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data From Global Circulation Models : in South Wollo Zone, North Central Ethiopia. National Monthly Referred Journal of Research in Science & Technology, 2 (7), 27–39.
[6]	Ayalew, D., Tesfaye, K., Mamo, G., Yitaferu, B., & Bayu, W. 2012. Outlook of future climate in northwestern Ethiopia. 3 (4), 608–624.
[7]	Worqlul, A. W., Dile, Y. T., Ayana, E. K., & Jeong, J. 2018. Impact of Climate Change on Streamflow Hydrology in Headwater Catchments of the Upper Blue Nile. https://doi.org/10.3390/w10020120
[8]	Dawson, C. W., Abrahart, R. J. and See, L. M., 2007. HydroTest: a web-based toolbox of evaluation metrics for the standardised assessment of hydrological forecasts. Environmental Modelling & Software, 22 (7), pp. 1034-1052.
[9]	Schmidli, J., Frei, C., & Vidale, P. L. 2006. Downscaling from GCM precipitation: A benchmark for dynamical and statistical downscaling methods. International Journal of Climatology, 26 (5), 679–689. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1287
[10]	Daba, M. H., Tadele, K., Shimelis, A., & Melesse, A. M. 2017. Hydrological Response to Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation Strategies for Upper Awash Sub-basin, in the Awash Basin, Ethiopia Director General, Transport Construction Design S. Company, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia Biometrics, GIS and Agro meteorology. (October). https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-0689-7
[11]	Kassie, B. T., Pioneer, D., Hengsdijk, H., & Asseng, S. (2013). Climate variability and change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia : Challenges for rainfed crop production Climate variability and change in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia : challenges for rainfed crop production. (June 2016). https://doi.org/10.1017/S0021859612000986
[12]	Abraham, T. 2018. Impacts of Climate Change Under CMIP5 RCP Scenarios on the Hydrology of Lake Ziway Catchment, Central Rift Valley of. 8 (7).
[13]	Asore, D. G., Nour, M. H., Zaghloul, A. S., & Hamed, K. H. 2010. impact of climate change on evapotranspiration and runoff in awash basin.

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APA Style

Kasye Shitu, Shimelis Berhanu. (2020). Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science, 9(5), 87-97. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11

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ACS Style

Kasye Shitu; Shimelis Berhanu. Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia. J. Water Resour. Ocean Sci. 2020, 9(5), 87-97. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11

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AMA Style

Kasye Shitu, Shimelis Berhanu. Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia. J Water Resour Ocean Sci. 2020;9(5):87-97. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11

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@article{10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11,
  author = {Kasye Shitu and Shimelis Berhanu},
  title = {Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia},
  journal = {Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science},
  volume = {9},
  number = {5},
  pages = {87-97},
  doi = {10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wros.20200905.11},
  abstract = {Statistical downscaling models for temperature and precipitation in Borkena River Catchment, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in historic, current and future climate changes. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the outputs from GCMs and stations data (1976-2005) which were collected from 4 observed meteorological stations (predictand) and downscaling using SDSM version 4.2.9a. The study investigated how these changes in temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in livelihoods of people and other biophysical components using impact assessments. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the statistical downscaling methods in estimating monthly average rainfall and temperature, in line with this it was also conducted to project the future climate situation of Borkena River catchment (Ethiopia). Accordingly, the results revealed that both temperatures (maximum and minimum) showed an increasing trend. The result of future temperature from SDSM for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show increased rate on annual basis except 202s for RCP4.5. The maximum increasing value will occur for RCP8.5 in the 2020s and 2080s with a value of 1.85°C and 2.82°C for minimum and maximum temperature respectively. Downscaled precipitation results of future time interval of this study indicated decreased precipitation value for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on annual basis. This, may increase water availability stresses in the study area. Therefore, this facilitate the decision makers to incorporate climate change scenarios for devising sustainable strategies, including: water harvesting technologies, supplementary irrigation, using improved seeds, which can tolerate moisture stresses, afforestation and reforestation programs, and soil and water conservation techniques. Moreover, crop diversifications, agricultural extension services access, related strategies, and measures are highly recommended for climate change resiliencies.},
 year = {2020}
}

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TY  - JOUR
T1  - Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia
AU  - Kasye Shitu
AU  - Shimelis Berhanu
Y1  - 2020/09/24
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11
T2  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
JF  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
JO  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
SP  - 87
EP  - 97
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7993
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11
AB  - Statistical downscaling models for temperature and precipitation in Borkena River Catchment, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in historic, current and future climate changes. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the outputs from GCMs and stations data (1976-2005) which were collected from 4 observed meteorological stations (predictand) and downscaling using SDSM version 4.2.9a. The study investigated how these changes in temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in livelihoods of people and other biophysical components using impact assessments. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the statistical downscaling methods in estimating monthly average rainfall and temperature, in line with this it was also conducted to project the future climate situation of Borkena River catchment (Ethiopia). Accordingly, the results revealed that both temperatures (maximum and minimum) showed an increasing trend. The result of future temperature from SDSM for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show increased rate on annual basis except 202s for RCP4.5. The maximum increasing value will occur for RCP8.5 in the 2020s and 2080s with a value of 1.85°C and 2.82°C for minimum and maximum temperature respectively. Downscaled precipitation results of future time interval of this study indicated decreased precipitation value for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on annual basis. This, may increase water availability stresses in the study area. Therefore, this facilitate the decision makers to incorporate climate change scenarios for devising sustainable strategies, including: water harvesting technologies, supplementary irrigation, using improved seeds, which can tolerate moisture stresses, afforestation and reforestation programs, and soil and water conservation techniques. Moreover, crop diversifications, agricultural extension services access, related strategies, and measures are highly recommended for climate change resiliencies.
VL  - 9
IS  - 5
ER  -

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Author Information

Kasye Shitu

Department of Soil and Water Resource Management, Assosa University, Assosa, Ethiopia
Shimelis Berhanu

School of Water Resource and Environmental Engineering, Haramaya Institute of Technology, Haramaya University, Haramaya, Ethiopia

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APA Style

Kasye Shitu, Shimelis Berhanu. (2020). Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia. Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science, 9(5), 87-97. https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11

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ACS Style

Kasye Shitu; Shimelis Berhanu. Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia. J. Water Resour. Ocean Sci. 2020, 9(5), 87-97. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11

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AMA Style

Kasye Shitu, Shimelis Berhanu. Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia. J Water Resour Ocean Sci. 2020;9(5):87-97. doi: 10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11

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@article{10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11,
  author = {Kasye Shitu and Shimelis Berhanu},
  title = {Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia},
  journal = {Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science},
  volume = {9},
  number = {5},
  pages = {87-97},
  doi = {10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11},
  url = {https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11},
  eprint = {https://article.sciencepublishinggroup.com/pdf/10.11648.j.wros.20200905.11},
  abstract = {Statistical downscaling models for temperature and precipitation in Borkena River Catchment, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in historic, current and future climate changes. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the outputs from GCMs and stations data (1976-2005) which were collected from 4 observed meteorological stations (predictand) and downscaling using SDSM version 4.2.9a. The study investigated how these changes in temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in livelihoods of people and other biophysical components using impact assessments. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the statistical downscaling methods in estimating monthly average rainfall and temperature, in line with this it was also conducted to project the future climate situation of Borkena River catchment (Ethiopia). Accordingly, the results revealed that both temperatures (maximum and minimum) showed an increasing trend. The result of future temperature from SDSM for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show increased rate on annual basis except 202s for RCP4.5. The maximum increasing value will occur for RCP8.5 in the 2020s and 2080s with a value of 1.85°C and 2.82°C for minimum and maximum temperature respectively. Downscaled precipitation results of future time interval of this study indicated decreased precipitation value for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on annual basis. This, may increase water availability stresses in the study area. Therefore, this facilitate the decision makers to incorporate climate change scenarios for devising sustainable strategies, including: water harvesting technologies, supplementary irrigation, using improved seeds, which can tolerate moisture stresses, afforestation and reforestation programs, and soil and water conservation techniques. Moreover, crop diversifications, agricultural extension services access, related strategies, and measures are highly recommended for climate change resiliencies.},
 year = {2020}
}

Copy | Download

TY  - JOUR
T1  - Statistical Downscaling of Daily Temperature and Rainfall Data from Global Circulation Models, in Borkena River Catchment, Ethiopia
AU  - Kasye Shitu
AU  - Shimelis Berhanu
Y1  - 2020/09/24
PY  - 2020
N1  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11
DO  - 10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11
T2  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
JF  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
JO  - Journal of Water Resources and Ocean Science
SP  - 87
EP  - 97
PB  - Science Publishing Group
SN  - 2328-7993
UR  - https://doi.org/10.11648/j.wros.20200905.11
AB  - Statistical downscaling models for temperature and precipitation in Borkena River Catchment, have been developed and applied to calculate the changes in historic, current and future climate changes. Projected changes in precipitation and temperature were analyzed using the outputs from GCMs and stations data (1976-2005) which were collected from 4 observed meteorological stations (predictand) and downscaling using SDSM version 4.2.9a. The study investigated how these changes in temperature and precipitation might translate into changes in livelihoods of people and other biophysical components using impact assessments. The objective of this paper was to evaluate the statistical downscaling methods in estimating monthly average rainfall and temperature, in line with this it was also conducted to project the future climate situation of Borkena River catchment (Ethiopia). Accordingly, the results revealed that both temperatures (maximum and minimum) showed an increasing trend. The result of future temperature from SDSM for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 show increased rate on annual basis except 202s for RCP4.5. The maximum increasing value will occur for RCP8.5 in the 2020s and 2080s with a value of 1.85°C and 2.82°C for minimum and maximum temperature respectively. Downscaled precipitation results of future time interval of this study indicated decreased precipitation value for both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 on annual basis. This, may increase water availability stresses in the study area. Therefore, this facilitate the decision makers to incorporate climate change scenarios for devising sustainable strategies, including: water harvesting technologies, supplementary irrigation, using improved seeds, which can tolerate moisture stresses, afforestation and reforestation programs, and soil and water conservation techniques. Moreover, crop diversifications, agricultural extension services access, related strategies, and measures are highly recommended for climate change resiliencies.
VL  - 9
IS  - 5
ER  -

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